While the No.1 seeds are decided for the 2026 women's NCAA tournament bracket, the debate rages on as to which team will secure the No.1 overall spot ahead of Selection Sunday.

UConn, UCLA, Texas, and South Carolina were determined to be the No.1 seeds a week ago after the Power 4 tournaments finished. The committee has also decided which teams will host games on the opening weekend after the release of the top 16 teams on Saturday.

Geno Auriemma's UConn Huskies remain the strongest candidates to receive the No.1 overall seed nod, going unbeaten (34-0) the whole regular season for the eleventh time. The Huskies also topped the list on the committee's top-16 list from February 14 and March 1.

However, UCLA has also made a compelling case to headline over the Huskies after winning both the Big Ten and conference titles since the last committee listing on March 1. The 51-point win over Iowa in the final last Sunday could very well be the extra fuel required to topple the UConn giants.

Meanwhile, LSU and Vanderbilt are expected to be No.2 seeds as they cannot be placed with either of the No.1 seeds, South Carolina or Texas, as per bracketing rules.

This season’s “bubble” features a larger group of contenders compared to prior years, when only a few teams competed for the final spots. The selection committee will likely rely heavily on advanced metrics, including Wins Above Bubble (WAB), to determine which teams earn the remaining spots in the NCAA tournament.

The full bracket will be revealed on the Selection Sunday show airing on ESPN, officially launching the road to the Final Four scheduled for early April. The first round of the NCAA tournament begins on March 20.

Can UCLA Surprise UConn as the No.1 Overall Seed?

While the Huskies make the stronger case on paper and are projected to be the favourites for the No.1 overall seed after going undefeated throughout the season, analysts have argued that UCLA has more quality wins from facing a tougher schedule in the Big Ten, widely considered the toughest league in the country.

The Bruins are first in strength-of-schedule, which is based on the average NET rating of their opponents. Meanwhile, UConn is way back in the 58th position.

UCLA also has 18 Quad 1 wins, ten more than UConn, while also placing at the top in Wins Above Bubble (WAB). The Huskies sit fourth in this statistic.

Heading into Selection Sunday, UConn is first in the coaches poll for the projected No.1 overall seed, followed by UCLA, Texas, and South Carolina, respectively. According to ESPN's bracketology, the Huskies remain at the top spot as well. However, it would not come as a major shock if the Bruins do topple Geno Auriemma's star-studded team.

But do you think UCLA will actually top UConn as the No. 1 overall team?

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Written by

Joy Bassy

Edited by

Souvik Roy